This project’s ambition is to research the impact of climate change on important plants for the ecosystem services of the páramos
High Elevation Sky Islands
The páramos in Colombia, the high-altitude sky islands dominated by grasslands, rosettes and bushes above the timber-line in the tropical Andes, provide priceless ecosystem services to local communities. For example, páramos play a fundamental role in providing fresh water - they act as living sponges due to the plants’ adaptations to the unique climate conditions. In fact, it has been estimated that a páramo releases 2-5 litres of water per m2 per day, and more than 80% of the fresh water of Bogotá, Quito, Medellín, Cuenca, Piura, Cajamarca and other cities comes from this ecosystem.
In addition, páramos are recognized as the world’s most diverse high-elevation ecosystem, with an exceptionally high level of plant species endemic to their area. Hundreds of the more than 4,700 páramo plant species are frequently used by local people as a source of medicine, food, spices, condiments, construction materials, firewood, etc.
Unfortunately, the area covered by páramos is shrinking at an alarming pace, mostly due to climate change via increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. Future projections suggest a reduction of its extent by around 50% by mid-century. At the species level, it is projected that between 10 and 47% of Andean endemic species will become extinct by 2100.
In addition, páramos are recognized as the world’s most diverse high-elevation ecosystem, with an exceptionally high level of plant species endemic to their area. Hundreds of the more than 4,700 páramo plant species are frequently used by local people as a source of medicine, food, spices, condiments, construction materials, firewood, etc.
Unfortunately, the area covered by páramos is shrinking at an alarming pace, mostly due to climate change via increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns. Future projections suggest a reduction of its extent by around 50% by mid-century. At the species level, it is projected that between 10 and 47% of Andean endemic species will become extinct by 2100.
The Importance of the Páramos in Boyacá
The research project that Kew launched in June 2017 is designed to assess the impact of climate change on plants of the páramos of the Colombian region of Boyacá that are important for ecosystem services, where páramos cover 25% of its territory (5,384 km2). There are in fact six páramo complexes surrounded by urban centres where most people’s livelihoods depend on this ecosystem. People living in the páramo are so connected to these highlands that even their culture is called “cultura paramuna” (culture from the páramos). Therefore, a degradation of these lands would have enormous consequences, not just for the livelihoods of communities, but also for their culture and traditions. The páramos of Boyacá are also extremely biodiverse: they hold more than 2,354 known plant and lichen species. This is nearly half of the 4,646 species of plants and lichens reported for the entire region.
The consequences of climate change on the páramos are still unclear so over the next 9 months we will be working out the likely responses (e.g. change in functional traits, contraction or expansion of range, or even extinction) of key plant species, to assess the threats for the páramo ecosystem and its services. The project team will join the field expeditions of the “Expeditions Bio Boyacá” to the prioritised páramos El Valle, El Consuelo, Pisba, Ocetá, Bijagual-Mamapacha and Rabanal to collect a range of data on 100 key plant species (based on their known contribution to the different categories of ecosystem services). We will then use different scenarios to model the impact of climate change on their distributions and functions in the ecosystem.
Results from this project will inform decision makers as well as social and conservation organizations about the likely impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services provided by the páramos of Boyacá, and the potential consequences for human livelihoods.
The consequences of climate change on the páramos are still unclear so over the next 9 months we will be working out the likely responses (e.g. change in functional traits, contraction or expansion of range, or even extinction) of key plant species, to assess the threats for the páramo ecosystem and its services. The project team will join the field expeditions of the “Expeditions Bio Boyacá” to the prioritised páramos El Valle, El Consuelo, Pisba, Ocetá, Bijagual-Mamapacha and Rabanal to collect a range of data on 100 key plant species (based on their known contribution to the different categories of ecosystem services). We will then use different scenarios to model the impact of climate change on their distributions and functions in the ecosystem.
Results from this project will inform decision makers as well as social and conservation organizations about the likely impacts of climate change on the ecosystem services provided by the páramos of Boyacá, and the potential consequences for human livelihoods.
Objectives
The specific objectives of this project are to:
- Select key species and carry out fieldwork to collect data on their distributions, functional traits, and associated ecosystem services.
- Model the impact of climate change on future distributions of the key species, to assess their likely responses.
- Analyse the expected impacts of climate change on the identified functional traits and ecosystem services associated with them, to estimate the potential impacts on livelihoods.
OUTPUTS
- Collection of data on 100 key plant species – their distributions, functional traits, and the ecosystem services associated with each.
- Climate change impact models covering each of these aspects – these will generate novel knowledge about the potential sensitivity of Boyacá’s páramo key plant species, and hence the risk of disruption to ecosystem services.
- This information will provide an outline for the next IPCC, detailing what ecosystem services are most affected by climate change, at what magnitude and in which areas of the páramos of Boyacá.
- The project’s methods and data have the potential of being replicated in other areas of interest.
- Knowledge will be disseminated through a broad range of media: peer-reviewed journals with high impact factor (e.g. Nature Climate Change (IF 17.184), Global Change Biology (IF 8.444), Diversity and Distributions (IF 4.830)), opinion magazines and newspapers.
- Developed models will be discussed and shared with experts from the Humboldt Institute, and will be incorporated into the BioModelos portal.
PUBLICATIONS
Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramoshttps://peerj.com/articles/11370/
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Blog: Colombia’s high-elevation biodiversity at riskhttps://www.kew.org/read-and-watch/colombia-high-elevation-risk |
Supplementary Figure S1. Example of Mahalanobis distance based fundamental niche modelling for bootstrap resamples 1, 2, and 1,000 of Espeletia boyacensis Cuatrec. The bootstrap resample is shown by dots for which the size is indicative of the number of replicates in the sample. The probability of being within the fundamental niche is calculated from Mahalanobis distances for each sample and shown as ellipsoids at the p>=0.9 (smallest ellipsoid), p>=0.5, and p>=0.1 (largest ellipsoid) thresholds for bootstrap resamples (a) 1, (b) 2, and (c) 1,000.